Kamala Harris’s likability, competence, and political acumen were publicly questioned throughout her vice presidency. Viewed through the lens of poll numbers, that was understandable. According to Real Clear Politics, her average favorability seldom cracked 50 percent. It was higher than her average unfavorability for only her first five months (save for a brief post-presidential debate spike last September).
Maybe it’s time for J.D. Vance to face some questions.
Vance’s favorability is worse than Harris’s at the same two-month mark and perhaps worse than any new vice president in the history of polling. His Real Clear Politics favorable-unfavorable rating is 41.7 percent-44.8 percent, a slightly worse net favorable rating (-3.1 percentage points) than Donald Trump’s (-0.9). When looking only at March polling—sampled after his infamous Oval Office hectoring of Ukraine’s president—he’s even more underwater: 42.4 percent-48.0 percent.
Vice presidents, while rarely public opinion rockstars, typically begin with a bit more goodwill from the public.
In Gallup polling, Dick Cheney’s favorability was over 60 percent for his first two-and-a-half years before his role in influencing intelligence assessments was uncovered. In his first year as Barack Obama’s number two, Joe Biden started with a 53 percent favorable and a 29 percent unfavorable though, as the Great Recession ground on, drifted down to a 42-40 split by the end of October 2009. (Biden’s first-year numbers from Pew were better, starting at 63-20 in January 2009 and declining to 50-29 in November 2009.) Mike Pence’s favorables and unfavorables were unimpressively split in the low 40s during his first year, though that was a better performance than that of his superior, Donald Trump.
Polling from CBS/The New York Times in the first vice presidential years of Dan Quayle and Al Gore—in the pre-Internet era—showed high numbers of voters who were “undecided” or “didn’t know enough.” Nevertheless, Gore started fairly strongly with a 36 percent-7 percent favorable-unfavorable rating. Quayle, who was tagged as an intellectual lightweight when he joined the 1988 Republican ticket, started underwater at 19 percent-23 percent and didn’t improve.
Quayle is a rare example of a vice president in the modern presidential primary era who couldn’t secure his party’s presidential nomination, with the other being Pence. Vance could easily be the third.
Quayle and Pence were not only poll-challenged. They each ran in a presidential primary against either his former ticket mate or his former ticket mate’s son, complicating the usual play by veeps to be perceived as next-in-line. Trump has indicated he may wish to prop up a family member in 2028. In December, Time asked if “there will be a Trump dynasty,” and Trump said, “I think there could be,” and never uttered Vance’s name. Last month, Fox News asked during the pre-Super Bowl interview, “Do you view Vice President J.D. Vance as your successor, the Republican nominee in 2028?” Trump replied, “No, but is he very capable. I mean, I don’t think that, you know, I think you have a lot of very capable people. So far, I think he is doing a fantastic job. It’s too early. We are just starting.” (Trump did not take the opportunity to claim he could run for a third term.)
Vance shrugged off the comment gamely, but he must realize he is being diminished. If he can’t count on Trump’s endorsement, explicit or tacit, then the only way to survive a presidential primary is with poll numbers so stellar that the electability argument could not be denied. Yet he starts from a very weak place. Put me down as skeptical that Vance’s petty, pedantic, and petulant approach to politics will wear well over time.
In 2021, I was pretty bullish on Harris’s long-term prospects despite her early difficulties and argued she was being judged by unrealistic standards. Her spike in favorability partly validated that view after becoming the 2024 presidential nominee and filleting Trump in their lone debate. But she couldn’t fully shake the negative narratives that Trump and his allies had pushed over the previous few years. More importantly, in my view, she was damaged by Biden’s compromised communication skills and inability to manage perceptions of inflation.
I’m not inclined to view Vance’s early weakness as charitably as I did for Harris for several reasons. His initial poll numbers are worse than Harris’s. While he has shown a modicum of capacity to calibrate his rhetoric for broad audiences (most effectively in his lone vice-presidential debate), he expends far more energy trying to emulate Trump’s nastiness, which I don’t consider a sustainable model for political success at the presidential level.
Yes, Trump won narrowly twice, but both times, he was not in power. His approach can work when he can blame everything on those in office and sell himself—trading on his fraudulent reputation as a celebrity businessman—as an omnipotent fixer. But his demagogic skills have proven far less potent once he holds power and has to deliver on his promises, which is why he lost in 2020 and has already frittered away his honeymoon poll numbers.
A Vance ‘28 campaign, I suspect, will be bogged down with immense baggage from his current stint in the public sector, without the ability to lean on any record of success in the private sector—save for a profitable book with a message that has no resemblance to anything Vance peddles today. If Trump taps a namesake to carry on his legacy, Vance will lose out on the party’s MAGA base. If Trump’s presidency is deeply unpopular by 2028, maybe a growing faction of Republican voters will want to turn the page on Trump, but Vance would be in no position to win their favor.
More important than what this all means for Vance’s career prospects is what this all means for the fabric of American politics. Many understandably fear that Trump has so permanently warped our politics that even once he is off the stage, extreme dishonesty and disparagement will continue to be the coin of the realm. But if that were so, Vance’s attempt to replicate the Trump style would resonate more with the public. Instead, Vance is slightly more unpopular than the president, who is getting more unpopular by the day.
